Top 10 Non-Chinese Gallium and Germanium Projects to Watch (August 2026 Update)

Gallium and germanium sit in the uncomfortable space between “tiny markets” and “system-critical inputs”. Defense electronics, high-frequency RF chips, satellite optics and advanced photovoltaics all depend on them, yet China still accounts for roughly 98–99% of primary gallium and about three-quarters of refined germanium (USGS Open-File Report 2026-1018 puts China at 98% of primary gallium and 77% of refined germanium). China’s licensing regimes — worldwide dual-use licensing since 1 August 2023 and a US-specific ban announced 3 December 2024, suspended on 9 November 2025 until 27 November 2026 — have reminded every semiconductor and defense buyer that a few dozen tonnes can hold an entire technology stack hostage.

This briefing ranks the top 10 non-Chinese gallium and germanium supply projects to watch by one core criterion: readiness to deliver meaningful tonnage before 2030. Materials Dispatch weighs three dimensions: (1) financing and permitting status (a final investment decision beats a study), (2) reliability of feedstock and infrastructure, and (3) alignment with allied industrial and defense policy. Capacity claims are treated as directional, not guaranteed; where company guidance looks optimistic we factor in typical schedule slippage from comparable projects.

The August 2026 update reorders the list substantially. Since our February 2026 edition, Alcoa took a final investment decision at Wagerup (not Kwinana, which was permanently closed in September 2025), South32 agreed to sell the Worsley alumina complex to Alcoa without ever announcing a gallium circuit, Korea Zinc confirmed Clarksville, Tennessee (not Oklahoma) as its US smelter site, 5N Plus won US Defense Production Act funding for germanium in Utah (not Montreal), and Canada committed up to C$400 million to Teck’s Trail smelter. Entries 1–5 are now funded projects with public schedules; entries 6–8 are pilots and demonstration plants with government money attached; entries 9–10 are strategic options that matter for the 2028+ horizon. Together the funded pipeline is on the order of 250–300 tonnes a year of gallium-equivalent capacity if everything executes — a meaningful dent in a ~900 t/yr primary gallium market, but not before 2027–28.

The ranking deliberately favors deliverability over raw resource size. A refinery side-stream that has passed FID and has three governments co-funding it is more strategic, in our view, than a remote greenfield deposit still fighting for its first drill permits. With that framing, the list starts in Western Australia and Greece before moving to Tennessee, Canada, Utah, Texas, Louisiana, Belgium and Montana.

What changed since May 2026

• 14 Jul 2026 — Alcoa, with the Australian, Japanese and US governments, takes a final investment decision on the Wagerup gallium project (~100 t/yr, roughly 10% of world supply).
• 7 Jul 2026 — Teck, the Canada Growth Fund and Natural Resources Canada sign a strategic-investment agreement (up to C$400m within a C$850m program) to roughly double germanium and antimony output at Trail and add gallium recovery, with Canadian government offtake rights.
• 30 Jun–1 Jul 2026 — South32 agrees to sell Worsley and its aluminium chain to Alcoa for up to US$5.6bn (close H2 FY27); any Worsley gallium is now an Alcoa decision.
• 29 Jul 2026 — Metlen signs a long-term supply agreement for ~25% of its Greek gallium output (counterparty confidential), after a €90m EIB loan (15 Jan 2026) and Greek approvals (May 2026).
• 13 Jul 2026 — US Department of War puts US$25m into ReElement (Marion, Indiana); first commercial germanium column commissioned 7 Aug 2026.
• May–Jun 2026 — Metallium (ex-MTM Critical Metals) wins a US$1m DLA SBIR Phase II for gallium/germanium recovery from e-waste and runs its first multi-reactor flash-Joule-heating operations at Gator Point, Texas.
• Trade flows — Chinese gallium exports fell to 3 kg in April 2026, rebounded to 6.2 t in May (6 t to Japan) and 200 kg in June (zero to Japan and Germany); H1 2026 total ~22.75 t. Germanium exports remain concentrated (Russia took ~1.04 t of 1.13 t in May).
• Prices — Argus assessed a Western gallium benchmark near US$3,050/kg on 30 July 2026, about nine times the pre-control level; China domestic 4N was ~US$235–430/kg. Germanium: China 5N FOB ~US$3,900–4,200/kg vs ~US$6,300/kg Western in-warehouse (early Aug).
• Policy climate — MOFCOM Announcement No. 34 (5 Aug 2026) tightened US-bound drone exports and added seven US entities to countermeasures lists; nothing has been said about extending the Announcement No. 72 suspension past 27 November 2026, and the ban on exports to US military end-users was never suspended.

1. Alcoa Wagerup Gallium Project (Western Australia, Australia)

The asset/risk. Alcoa’s Wagerup alumina refinery is now the anchor of the non-Chinese gallium story. Under a joint development agreement with JAGA (Sojitz and JOGMEC) signed 4 August 2025, with US and Australian government support announced 20 October 2025, the project reached a final investment decision on 14 July 2026. Alcoa guides to roughly 100 t/yr of gallium — on the order of 10% of world supply — recovered from Bayer-process liquor, with construction following site preparation and first output targeted for 2027.

Strategic context. An Australian gallium stream anchored to a large, long-life alumina asset plugs directly into the allied minerals strategy: Japan gets JOGMEC-backed offtake, the US gets a non-Chinese source for GaN and GaAs wafer supply chains, and Australia gets a downstream processing win under its critical-minerals framework. Compared with recycling plays, Wagerup offers scale and low unit costs, backed by the political stability of a treaty ally.

The bottleneck. Metallurgy is conventional; the risks are schedule and integration. Retrofitting a gallium circuit into a running Bayer plant without disturbing alumina throughput, hiring in a tight WA labor market, and clearing Western Australia’s tightened environmental expectations around liquor chemistry and residue management are the constraints to watch. Note that Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery — cited in earlier editions of this list — was permanently closed on 29 September 2025 and is not part of the plan.

The verdict. Wagerup ranks first because it is the only 100-tonne-class Western gallium project with an FID, three sovereign backers and a named operator with Bayer-plant experience. Signals to track: construction start, first-metal date, purity specifications (4N vs 6N/7N for semiconductor grades), and how much of the output is pre-committed to Japanese and US buyers versus left to spot channels.

2. Metlen Agios Nikolaos Gallium Plant (Viotia, Greece)

The asset/risk. Metlen (formerly Mytilineos) is building Europe’s first primary gallium plant beside its Agios Nikolaos alumina refinery. The European Investment Bank committed €90m on 15 January 2026, Greek approvals followed in May 2026, and on 29 July 2026 Metlen signed a long-term supply agreement for about 25% of planned output. Guidance is 50 t/yr, ramping through 2027 to full rate in 2028.

Strategic context. This is the EU Critical Raw Materials Act in physical form: an intra-EU gallium source, EIB financing, and a European alumina feedstock chain. It gives EU semiconductor, defense and telecom buyers a route around Chinese licensing — relevant given MOFCOM’s July 2026 addition of 14 EU entities to its export-control list — and gives the EU’s planned joint stockpile (gallium is on the May 2026 shortlist) a domestic supplier to buy from.

The bottleneck. Feedstock is captive, so the constraints are ramp discipline and offtake mix: how quickly the plant reaches nameplate, whether it targets 4N metal or higher-purity grades, and how much volume goes to strategic (EU/US) buyers versus traders. Greek energy costs and the alumina cycle are secondary risks.

The verdict. Second place on funding certainty and timeline. Watch for construction milestones, the identity of the offtaker behind the July 2026 agreement, and any EU stockpile or Raw Materials Mechanism award that locks in volumes.

3. Korea Zinc “Project Crucible” Smelter (Clarksville, Tennessee, USA)

The asset/risk. Announced 15 December 2025, Korea Zinc’s US smelter will be built on the former Nyrstar site in Clarksville, Tennessee (earlier reports pointing to Oklahoma were superseded). Total cost is about US$7.4bn (US$6.6bn capex), with US$210m in CHIPS support, roughly US$2.15bn of equity arranged with the Department of War and strategic investors, and JPMorgan-backed debt. Fastmarkets reports design capacity of 54 t/yr gallium and 44 t/yr germanium at full rate, alongside zinc, antimony and other critical byproducts. Crucible Zinc launched 1 April 2026, FAST-41 permitting coverage came 24 April 2026; construction is slated for 2027, operations 2029, full rate 2030.

Strategic context. This is the largest single addition of allied Ga/Ge capacity on the board and the only one that produces both metals at scale on US soil. For US defense primes facing the 1 January 2027 DFARS covered-country magnet rules and the ban on Chinese gallium for military end-use, a domestic multi-metal smelter is the long-run answer — but its 2029–30 timing means it does nothing for the November 2026 cliff.

The bottleneck. Scale, feedstock and execution. Multi-billion-dollar smelters in North America routinely run into labor constraints and cost overruns; the plant relies on imported concentrates whose impurity profiles determine gallium and germanium yield; and gallium/germanium circuits must be designed in from day one rather than bolted on.

The verdict. Third: strategically the most important project on the list, but the furthest out. Signals: groundbreaking in 2027, concentrate supply agreements, and offtake tied specifically to the gallium and germanium streams rather than zinc.

4. Teck Trail Operations Germanium and Gallium Expansion (British Columbia, Canada)

The asset/risk. Teck’s Trail complex is one of the few established germanium producers outside China, recovering the metal from zinc smelting. On 7 July 2026 Teck, the Canada Growth Fund and Natural Resources Canada signed a strategic-investment agreement — up to C$400m of CGF capital within a C$850m program — to roughly double germanium and antimony capacity and add gallium recovery, with the Canadian government taking offtake rights. Separately, Titan Mining agreed on 13 May 2026 to evaluate supplying ~13 t/yr of contained germanium from Empire State Mines waste streams in New York.

Strategic context. Germanium underpins infrared optics for night vision and thermal imaging, satellite solar cells and fiber-optic dopants. An expanded Trail in a NATO country, rail-connected to US and Pacific ports, gives defense and telecom buyers a predictable, politically aligned source of high-purity germanium — and now, for the first time, gallium.

The bottleneck. Feedstock germanium content and modernization. Output is limited by the germanium and gallium content of input concentrates; Teck must secure suitable non-Chinese feed while upgrading legacy circuits under Canada’s emissions standards. Earlier reports of US Defense Department funding for Trail were not confirmed; the money is Canadian.

The verdict. Fourth: already operating, now funded, and the fastest route to incremental Western germanium tonnes. Watch for the expansion FID, the Titan/ESM feed decision, and first gallium output.

5. 5N Plus St. George Germanium Refining Expansion (Utah, USA)

The asset/risk. Montreal-headquartered 5N Plus received a US$18.1m Defense Production Act Title III award (dated 15 December 2025, announced 29 January 2026) to expand high-purity germanium refining at St. George, Utah to more than 20 t/yr — roughly seven times prior capacity — phased to about 2029–30. It follows a US$14.4m DPA award in April 2024 for germanium substrates. Earlier editions of this list placed the expansion in Montreal; the funded site is Utah, and there is no gallium component.

Strategic context. As satellite constellations, missile-warning and EO/IR payloads proliferate, demand for ultra-pure germanium substrates and optics grows faster than bulk statistics suggest. The limiting factor is qualified refiners that can deliver 6N–7N product on US soil under DoD traceability.

The bottleneck. Feedstock and scale: 5N Plus must secure non-Chinese concentrates, intermediates or scrap (Trail, Korea Zinc and recyclers such as ReElement are the natural partners) and hire specialty-refining talent that is scarce.

The verdict. Fifth: modest tonnage, high systemic importance, and now funded. Signals: feedstock agreements, qualification milestones with space and defense customers, and phase-one commissioning.

6. Rio Tinto / Indium Corporation Gallium Demonstration Plant (Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec, Canada)

The asset/risk. Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation are building a gallium extraction pilot at the Complexe Jonquière alumina refinery, with C$18.95m from Ottawa and C$7m from Quebec (announced 2 March 2026). The pilot targets up to 4 t/yr in 2027, with a commercial option of ~40 t/yr if the process proves out.

Strategic context. A Canadian gallium source with an established US-based downstream partner (Indium Corp) is well positioned for North American defense and semiconductor buyers, and Quebec hydro gives it a low-carbon profile.

The bottleneck. It is a pilot: the commercial decision depends on 2027 results, and 40 t/yr is an option, not a plan.

The verdict. Sixth — the most credible of the North American pilots. Watch for first metal in 2027 and a commercial-scale FID.

7. Metallium (ex-MTM Critical Metals) Gator Point E-Waste Facility (Texas, USA)

The asset/risk. The company formerly known as MTM Critical Metals — now Metallium (ASX:MTM) — has been commissioning its Gator Point plant in Chambers County, Texas since December 2025 and ran its first multi-reactor flash-Joule-heating operations on 16 June 2026. Stage 1 is an 8,000 t/yr printed-circuit-board e-waste line aimed primarily at gold, copper, silver and tin; gallium and germanium recovery runs on a 350 t/yr specialty demonstration line supported by a US$1m DLA SBIR Phase II award (19 May 2026). It has a ten-year offtake with Indium Corporation (31 March 2026), Glencore feed (2,400 t/yr) and raised A$75m in January 2026. No gallium or germanium tonnage has been disclosed.

Strategic context. Recycled, US-origin gallium and germanium with DoD-compliant traceability is exactly what RF and defense buyers want — but at demonstration scale it is optionality, not supply.

The bottleneck. Feedstock chemistry and scale-up: e-waste is variable, and moving from a 350 t/yr demo line to metal tonnes that matter requires both dedicated Ga/Ge feed and proven recovery rates.

The verdict. Seventh, down from first in our February edition, because the earlier “5–10 t/yr in 2026” framing is not supported by company disclosures. Signals: first disclosed Ga/Ge output, DLA follow-on funding, and whether Indium Corp offtake extends to gallium metal.

8. Gramercy, Louisiana Bauxite-Residue Gallium (ElementUSA and ATALCO, USA)

The asset/risk. Two linked efforts target gallium (and scandium) from the Gramercy alumina refinery in Louisiana. ElementUSA received a US$29.9m DPA Title III award on 20 November 2025 to build a demonstration plant (construction mid-2027, output from Q3 2028) with a commercial concept of ~50 t/yr; ATALCO, the refinery owner, holds an EXIM letter of interest for up to US$450m covering a Gramercy expansion and gallium project of up to 50 t/yr, with no date attached.

Strategic context. Gramercy is the only operating US alumina refinery, so it is the only place a domestic Bayer-liquor gallium stream can exist. That makes it a policy priority regardless of economics.

The bottleneck. Financing and sequencing: the demo plant is funded, the commercial phase is not, and the timeline runs past 2028.

The verdict. Eighth — the credible US primary-gallium option, but a 2028+ story. Watch the EXIM decision and demo-plant construction start.

9. Umicore Olen Germanium (Belgium) and ReElement Marion (Indiana, USA)

The asset/risk. Umicore’s germanium business is at Olen (not the Hoboken precious-metals refinery cited in earlier editions). Its GePETO and ReGAIN germanium projects were designated EU CRMA Strategic Projects on 25 March 2025, and Umicore Optical Materials in Quapaw, Oklahoma received a US$11.8m DPA award on 30 January 2026. Capacity figures have not been disclosed. In the US, ReElement Technologies (Marion, Indiana) took US$25m from the Department of War on 13 July 2026 and commissioned its first commercial germanium separation column on 7 August 2026; its “>500 t/yr germanium and related” claim is unverified.

Strategic context. Recycling and secondary refining are the only route to a steady state where allied economies stop chasing new primary sources for metals used in tonnes, not kilotonnes. Europe’s germanium optics and fiber makers depend on Olen; the US EO/IR chain now has a second domestic refiner in ReElement.

The bottleneck. Feedstock capture. Most gallium and germanium in end-of-life products never reaches controlled recycling; building collection networks under EU waste rules is slow, and recyclers compete with smelters for the same residues.

The verdict. Ninth: strategically essential, quantitatively opaque. Signals: disclosed capacity at Olen, EU Raw Materials Mechanism awards, and ReElement’s first shipped germanium volumes.

10. US Critical Materials Sheep Creek (Montana, USA)

The asset/risk. Sheep Creek is best known for rare earths, but the deposit carries gallium alongside heavy REEs. US Critical Materials runs a pilot with Idaho National Laboratory (1–2 short tons of ore a day), formed an alliance with GreenMet in September 2025 and signed an MoU with REalloys in April 2026; permitting is on the FAST-41 dashboard. There is no federal capex award and no gallium tonnage guidance.

Strategic context. A single US-controlled mine producing both magnet rare earths and gallium under domestic chain-of-custody is attractive to the Pentagon, which is why it stays on the list despite its distance from production.

The bottleneck. Permitting, capital and flowsheet integration: NEPA review for an underground mine and processing plant, a first-of-kind REE-plus-gallium circuit, and financing that will need DoD-style support.

The verdict. Tenth: transformational upside, long timeline. Watch for a DPA or EXIM award, a resource update and permit milestones rather than exploration headlines.

Beyond the ten: options worth a line on the watchlist

Amaroq’s Black Angel (West Greenland) — the past-producing Zn-Pb-Ag mine (not a Canadian Arctic VMS prospect, as earlier editions stated) acquired by Amaroq in 2025; November 2025 re-assays returned ~102 ppm germanium and ~48 ppm gallium in concentrate, with first production targeted for 2028. Ivanhoe’s Kipushi (DRC) — 240–290 kt of zinc concentrate in 2026 with germanium/gallium recovery under study and Project Vault routing discussed in February 2026. Nyrstar Hobart (Australia) — germanium and indium (not gallium) feasibility work backed by A$135m (Aug 2025) and A$105m (Jun 2026) transition packages. Lattice Materials (Montana) — US$18.5m DPA for germanium optics (Sep 2025). Japan’s Dowa recovers gallium at Kosaka (a legacy ~2 t/yr operation); no new Japanese Ga/Ge project has been announced.

Decision table: what to do before 27 November 2026

Strategic Takeaways for Gallium & Germanium Supply Security

Across these ten projects, a few patterns stand out. First, byproduct recovery from alumina and zinc plants dominates funded non-Chinese supply growth through 2030. Alumina side-streams in Western Australia, Greece, Quebec and Louisiana, and zinc-smelter circuits in Trail and Clarksville can be scaled faster than new mines. Primary projects like Sheep Creek or Black Angel matter for long-term resilience, but they won’t bail out defense and semiconductor users in the next three years — and neither will the funded projects before 2027–28.

Second, the gap between announcement and metal is where earlier lists went wrong. Of the ten projects in our February 2026 edition, five were misdescribed or have since been overtaken: no South32 Worsley circuit ever existed, Kwinana closed, Korea Zinc chose Tennessee, 5N Plus was funded in Utah, and the “Black Angel” prospect is in Greenland. The corrective is to rank on FIDs, government awards and disclosed tonnage — and to say so when a company has not disclosed any.

Third, jurisdictional alignment is now a design parameter. Every funded project on this list has a government co-investor: Australia, Japan and the US at Wagerup; the EIB in Greece; CHIPS money and Department of War equity in Tennessee; the Canada Growth Fund at Trail; DPA Title III in Utah, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Indiana. Price signals in these small markets are increasingly political as well as economic, and the US Treasury’s August 2026 endorsement of S&P Global reference prices for gallium and germanium points toward allied price floors.

Finally, the arithmetic: the funded pipeline — roughly 100 t (Wagerup) + 50 t (Metlen) + 54 t (Korea Zinc) + up to 40 t (Rio Tinto option) of gallium, plus 44 t (Korea Zinc) + >20 t (5N Plus) + Trail’s doubling of germanium — would materially cut China’s share of refined gallium and germanium available to allied buyers from 2028 onward. Between now and then, the market is governed by MOFCOM licensing, the 27 November 2026 suspension expiry, and inventories. Materials Dispatch’s working view is unchanged: resilience will come from portfolios — layered positions across recyclers, refinery side-streams and a small set of credible primary projects — and the leading indicators are FIDs, offtake disclosures and permits, not slide decks. For how the gallium squeeze plays through device choices, see our GaN vs SiC supply-risk analysis; for the price history, China’s gallium ban and the 2027 tightness; and for a monitored, dated status of every Chinese control, the export-controls tracker.

Sources

1. Reuters — Alcoa greenlights Australia gallium plant with US, Japan, domestic backing — 14 Jul 2026 — reuters.com
2. Alcoa — Australia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa announce final investment decision for gallium project in Western Australia — 14 Jul 2026 — news.alcoa.com
3. Alcoa — Closure of Kwinana refinery — 29 Sep 2025 — news.alcoa.com
4. Reuters — South32 to sell bulk of aluminium portfolio to Alcoa for up to $5.6 bln — 30 Jun 2026 — reuters.com
5. Metlen — Metlen signs landmark gallium supply agreement — 29 Jul 2026 — metlen.com; EIB backs Europe’s first gallium production with €90m — 15 Jan 2026 — metlen.com
6. Reuters — Korea Zinc to build $7.4 bln smelter in US — 15 Dec 2025 — reuters.com; Fastmarkets — Korea Zinc’s JPMorgan-backed Crucible plant to focus on US material — 9 Jan 2026 — fastmarkets.com
7. Teck — Teck, Canada Growth Fund and Canada Critical Minerals Accelerator sign agreement to support strategic metals production at Trail — 7 Jul 2026 — teck.com; Reuters — 7 Jul 2026 — reuters.com
8. Titan Mining — Cooperation agreement with Teck’s Trail Operations to evaluate germanium recovery — 13 May 2026 — globenewswire.com
9. US Department of War — $18.1M to increase US refining capacity for germanium (5N Plus) — 29 Jan 2026 — war.gov
10. US Department of War — $29.9 million to create a US domestic supply of gallium (ElementUSA) — 20 Nov 2025 — war.gov; ATALCO — EXIM potential financing of Gramercy expansion and gallium project — atalco.com
11. US Department of War — $11.8M for domestic processing of critical materials (Umicore Quapaw) — 30 Jan 2026 — war.gov; Umicore — EU selection of Umicore germanium projects — Mar 2025 — umicore.com
12. Rio Tinto — Rio Tinto advances gallium metal R&D project in partnership with the Government of Canada — 2 Mar 2026 — riotinto.com
13. Metallium — First multi-unit flash Joule heating operations — Jun 2026 — prnewswire.com; Metallium US$1M DLA SBIR and Indium Corp offtake — 20 May 2026 — rare-earth-mining.com
14. Reuters — Pentagon invests $25 million into rare earths startup ReElement Technologies — 13 Jul 2026 — reuters.com
15. Reuters — Ivanhoe eyes US market for Congo zinc under Project Vault — 4 Feb 2026 — reuters.com
16. Arctic Today — Amaroq confirms high-grade zinc, lead, silver and critical minerals at Black Angel — 11 Nov 2025 — arctictoday.com; Amaroq — Black Angel project page — amaroqminerals.com
17. Mining.com — US Critical Materials, GreenMet form alliance for gallium production — mining.com
18. Reuters — China suspends ban on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony to US (to 27 Nov 2026) — 9 Nov 2025 — reuters.com
19. USGS — Open-File Report 2026-1018, production of mineral commodities in China — 12 Jun 2026 — pubs.usgs.gov; USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — gallium
20. IEA — Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, executive summary — 10 Jul 2026 — iea.org
21. Tradium — Gallium and germanium: China’s April exports near zero — 28 May 2026 — tradium.com; Reuters — China’s heavy rare earth tap stays closed for Japan in June (gallium 200 kg) — 20 Jul 2026 — reuters.com
22. SP Angel via Share-Talk — market view (germanium China 5N US$4,195/kg; gallium China US$430/kg) — 13 Aug 2026 — share-talk.com. Argus Western gallium benchmark (~US$3,050/kg, 30 Jul 2026) cited via secondary market reports; the primary Fastmarkets/Argus series are paywalled.